Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week, short-term losses were supported by lower wind outturn, while long-term contracts saw very mild bullish support due to continued geopolitical uncertainty with the escalation of tensions and conflict between the US and Iran. Day-ahead gas rose 16.7% to 147.00p/th, following significant developments to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with Iran stating that its South Pars gas field was attacked by joint Israeli and US strikes. The South Pars/North Dome field is a joint gas field shared by Iran and Qatar, and is one of the largest natural gas fields in the world. Day-ahead power rose 114.5% to £123.00/MWh, following its gas counterpart alongside increased reliance on CCGT units and more expensive fuel‑based generation as wind generation dipped. Wind generation on the generation mix peaked at a daily average of 52.6% on 17 March, before a sharp drop ranging between 10-20% to end the week. April 26 gas was up 16.6% at 150.35p/th, and May 26 gas increased 17.7% at 149.80p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 22.9% on average. Both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 19.4% and 23.6% respectively, lifting to 147.70p/th and 148.63p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 12.3%. Both summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 11.3% and 13.0% respectively, rising to £105.75/MWh and £109.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 114.5% to £123.00/MWh, following lower levels of wind outturn and geopolitical uncertainty.
- April 26 power climbed 9.6% to £105.50/MWh, and May 26 power increased 10.3% to £104.75/MWh.
Annual April contract
- Q226 power moved 10.2% higher to £105.50/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 12.1% to £107.38/MWh, which was 48.7% higher than the same time last month (£72.20/MWh), and 43.6% higher than the same time last year (£74.80/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 4.7% to £102.00/MWh, following reduced demand as temperatures rose slightly
- April 26 peak power gained 9.7% to £105.75/MWh, and May 26 peak power increased 10.2% to £105.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Annual April 26 peak power rose 11.9% to £105.17/MWh, 42.9% lower than the same time last month (£73.58/MWh), and 40.7% higher than the same time last year (£74.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 12.3%.
- Both summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 11.3% and 13.0% respectively, rising to £105.75/MWh and £109.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 11.9% on average.
- Both summer 26 and winter 26 peak power increased 10.9% and 12.5% respectively, climbing to £106.25/MWh and £127.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Prices were supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential supply shortages, with Brent crude rising to $112.57/bl on 19 March, the highest level seen since June 2022.
- At the start of the week, Donald Trump called on allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. However, Germany, Japan and Australia said they don’t plan to send ships to help escort merchant vessels out of the region.
- The failure of the US to gather military support from allies to assist in escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz indicates that oil and LNG supplies may remain disrupted for longer than expected.
- As the week progressed, prices experienced substantial volatility due to large-scale attacks on Gulf countries by Iran, with the International Energy Agency noting that the war in the Middle East has led to the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
- However, Saudi Arabia activated its contingency strategy, ramping up oil exports via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, partially bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and stabilising some crude flows.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU and UK ETS carbon prices saw continued decreases as the week progressed, starting the week at €68.72/t and £38.09/t before falling to €63.60/t and £34.75/t, respectively on 19 March.
- The last time EU ETS prices were this low was April 2025 while UK ETS carbon prices last dropped this low in January 2025.
- However, prices on 20 March saw an increase, rising to €67.62/t and £36.86/t following the EU Summit on 19 March. The main outcome was that ETS will remain a central climate protection instrument moving forward after political uncertainty over the past month.
- The Summit highlighted that the European Commission will reform the Market Stability Reserve, introduce a €30 billion industrial decarbonisation fund financed by auctioning 400 million EUAs, and update free‑allocation benchmarks from 2035, alongside introducing short‑term measures to limit carbon‑price volatility triggered by global energy market disruptions like the crisis in the Middle East.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight