Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most near-term contracts saw bullish movement last week. Day-ahead gas rose 4.5% to 105.00p/th, following periods of reduced gas flows from the UK Continental Shelf as maintenance from Bacton Shell occurred from 20-26 January, and Barrow North saw an outage from 21-23 January. Moreover, U.S. gas output hit a three-month low as a cold-snap impacts the country, resulting in reduced gas exports. Likewise, February 26 gas was up 5.4% at 102.53p/th, and March 26 gas increased 5.1% to 91.33p/th. Day-ahead power followed this overall bullish trend, rising 15.6% to £114.61/MWh, as temperatures remained below seasonal levels acting to increase gas-for-power and heating demand across GB. Similarly, the outage at the 615MW Heysham 2 Reactor 8 nuclear generator was extended, now expected to return on 26 January, supporting higher prices across the week. Furthermore, all seasonal gas contracts rose last week, up by 2.1% on average, as winter 26 gas rose 1.0% to 75.85p/th. However, most seasonal power contracts fell last week, down on average by 0.01%, as summer 26 fell by 0.3% to £76.00/MWh, while winter 26 expanded 0.4% to £80.80/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 15.6% to £114.61/MWh, with the higher prices supported by temperatures remaining below seasonal levels acting to increase gas-for-power and heating demand across GB.
- February 26 power climbed 1.2% at £106.25/MWh and March 26 power increased 4.0% to £92/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 0.3% higher to £76.48/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 0.1% to £78.40/MWh, 4.0% higher than the same time last year (£75.40/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 6.2% to £122.00/MWh, opposing the movement seen across its baseload counterpart.
- However, February 26 peak power gained 4.2%, rising to £125.00/MWh, and March 26 peak power increased 4.2% to £99.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power rose 0.1% to £80.74/MWh.
- This is 5.1% higher than the same time last year (£76.80/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts marginally decreased last week, down on average by 0.01%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 0.3% to £76.00/MWh, while winter 26 expanded 0.4% to £80.80/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 0.2% on average.
- Summer 26 peak power dropped 0.6% to £77.60/MWh, while winter 26 peak power increased 0.3% to £95.80/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- While not experiencing a sharp week-on-week gain like the previous reporting period, Brent crude continued to increase as the week progressed, averaging $64.83/bl.
- At the start of the week, reports that U.S. President Donald Trump had halted plans for a potential military strike on Iran acted to limit concerns surrounding supply disruptions from a key oil producing region.
- However, these concerns were reignited on 23 January after Trump signalled the possibility of military action against Iran, citing a “big force” moving towards the country.
- Brent crude reached the highest level seen since October 2025 at $65.74/bl on 23 January.
- Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy permeated the market too, with the World Economic Forum in Davos closely watched by market participants.
- Although Trump moved away from implementing the 10% tariffs on goods from various European countries and the UK, sustained uncertainty surrounding negotiations related to Greenland continues to impact current market sentiment.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Across the week both EU and UK ETS carbon saw price losses as activity diminished and traders reduced risk ahead of the weekend amid growing concerns around the potential for military action in the Middle East.
- As a result, EU ETS carbon decreased 4.4% to €87.35/t and UK ETS carbon dropped 5.9% to €67.44/t.
- However, stronger losses were limited as gas prices rose after Commitment of Traders data showed unchanged speculative European Union Allowances positions and a flip to net length on the TTF at the end of last week.
- Moreover, market participants continued to digest the expiry of January EUA options and further developments at the World Economic Forum.
- Europe’s carbon market is expected to tighten sharply in 2026, with effective supply falling due to Market Stability Reserve (MSR) placements, maritime allowance cancellations, and the possibility of fewer REPowerEU auctions across the year.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight