Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Almost all tracked power and gas contracts saw gains last week, with day-ahead power acting as the only exception. Day-ahead gas rose 10.0% to 87.71p/th, following reductions in the US/China tariffs, and stalling progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, maintaining the security premium. This was coupled with outages across the Troll and Kollsnes production facilities, reducing export flows from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Conversely, day-ahead power fell 17.3% to £68.56/MWh, due to the elevated wind output at the weeks end, with wind generation contributing to 67% and 68% of the generation mix on 25 and 26 May respectively, reducing reliance on more expensive fuelled assets, weighing bearishly on prices. June 25 gas was up 4.7% at 87.50p/th, and July 25 gas increased 5.2% to 86.35p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 2.5% on average, while both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increased 3.7% and 3.8% respectively, lifting to 97.35p/th and 84.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 3.3%, as winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 3.8% and 4.2% respectively, rising to £87.50/MWh and £74.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 7.3% to £74.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- June 25 peak power gained 4.2% to £81.25/MWh, and July 25 peak power increased 3.6% to £82.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q325 power moved 3.7% higher to £80.25/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract rose 4.0% to £80.75/MWh, 1.7% higher than the same time last year (£79.38/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 7.3% to £74.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- June 25 peak power gained 4.2% to £81.25/MWh, and July 25 peak power increased 3.6% to £82.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power contract rose 3.2% to £92.00/MWh.
- This is 10.5% lower than the same time last year (£102.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts saw gains last week, up on average by 3.3%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 3.8% and 4.2% respectively, increasing to £87.50/MWh and £74.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 3.3% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power increased 3.8% and 4.2% respectively, rising to £103.00/MWh and £77.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil registered minor losses across the reporting period, easing by 0.8% to average $64.97/bl.
- Brent crude oil price losses were influenced by reports suggesting OPEC+ may raise production, alongside rising US crude inventories, and the resumption of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran.
- On 1 June, OPEC+ will decide on what it intends to carry out with regard to production levels. One scenario under discussion involves an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July.
- Moreover, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed an increase in commercial crude inventories, rising by 1.3 million barrels across the previous week.
- However, stronger losses were limited by intensifying conflict in Ukraine, continuing to elevate oil market risk premiums.
- Also, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait jointly announced a new oil discovery in the Partitioned Zone, marking the first find since production operations resumed in mid-2020.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Prices across the carbon markets recorded diverging movements last week, with EU ETS prices easing 0.8% to average €72.05/t, while UK ETS carbon saw gains, up 5.9% to average £53.12/t.
- Lower prices were influenced by the announcement of the UK-EU market linkage on 19 May, due to the UKA/EUA arbitrage as the UK market is priced lower relative to the EU. However, prices saw day-on-day gains as the week progressed due to higher Dutch TTF prices.
- Additionally, UK ETS carbon prices reached their highest level seen since July 2023 at £55.00/t on 20 May. This strong upward movement was driven by optimism following the EU-UK summit, while being further supported by largely speculative buying across the market.
- On 28 May, the European Commission will publish the total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC) for the EU ETS in 2024. If the published TNAC is higher or lower than expected, traders may adjust their positions, leading to short-term price volatility.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
