Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
All tracked gas, and most tracked power contracts registered bearish movements last week, with the exception of August 25, Winter 26 and Summer 27 baseload power. Day-ahead gas remained relatively stable last week and fell 1.5% to 78.30p/th. Gas contracts saw support from the extended maintenance across the Troll gas field in Norway, however this was balanced by increased nuclear and wind generation on the system. On a similar note, day ahead baseload power saw week-on week losses – stronger than its gas counterpart – finishing the week at £76.16/MWh, finding influence from the return of multiple nuclear facilities alongside forecasts of higher wind generation on 28 July. August 25 gas was down 2.0% at 78.83p/th, and September 25 gas decreased by 2.9% to 81.25p/th. Likewise, all seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 0.8% on average, with both winter 25 and summer 26 gas dropping 1.9% and 0.9% respectively, subsiding to 90.33p/th and 81.90p/th. Most seasonal baseload power contracts saw losses last week – with the exception of Winter 26 and Summer 27 – dropping 0.1% on average, as winter 25 power decreased 0.8% to £83.60/MWh, while summer 26 fell 0.3% to £72.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 14.4% to £76.16/MWh, following forecasts of strong wind generation and improved nuclear supply.
- However, August 25 power climbed by 1.0% to £73.00/MWh while September 25 power fell 0.4% to £78.70 /MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q425 power averaged £82.00/MWh across the week, down 0.9% on the previous week.
- The annual October 25 contract lost 0.6%, down to £77.80/MWh, 3.0% higher than the same time last year (£75.55/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 5.4% to £76.15/MWh, opposing the movement seen across its baseload counterpart
- August 25 peak power declined by 0.3% at £73.50/MWh, and September peak power increased 0.2% to £83.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 0.4% to £90.22/MWh.
- This is 8.5% lower than the same time last year (£98.60/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 0.1%.
- Winter 25 power decreased by 0.8% to £83.60/MWh, while summer 26 fell 0.3% to £72.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw gains last week, up 0.5% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power boosted 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, to £99.60/MWh and £74.35/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude oil stood at $68.70/bl last week – a slight week-on-week decline, however prices remained steady throughout the week.
- Prices saw downward influence from positive sentiment following talks between Iraq’s federal government and Kurdistan Regional Government reviving the prospect that crude oil flows may resume through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline. On a similar note, Hungary and Serbia announced it will build a new oil pipeline –operational by 2027 – aimed at ensuring affordable and secure oil supplies for the EU.
- In addition, oil prices faced downward support as markets responded to the recent announcement of an oil price cap and supply restrictions under the EU’s 18th package of sanctions on Russia. Market participants remain hesitant and are closely following to determine the potential supply impacts of the sanctions.
- Conversely, prices faced upwards pressure following confirmation that Iran were to hold a new round of nuclear talks with the UK, France and Germany on 25 July, with the prospect that negotiations could increase future oil supply. In addition, investors remined cautious ahead of the US-EU tariff deadline with concerns that tariffs could weaken oil demand at a time of high supply.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU carbon prices fell week-on-week; the UK ETS dropped 0.7% to an average of £49.64/t and the EU ETS dropped 1.4% to an average of €69.86/t.
- At the beginning of the week, carbon prices saw downwards support following the announcement that EU/ETS linkage talks would be delayed until September, creating short-term uncertainty for the trade of allowances.
- In addition, below average temperatures across the continent provided bearish signals to carbon markets; however, this is limited by forecasts of low wind generation in Germany, increasing the demand for carbon intensive power in the EU. Furthermore, in Europe, demand for EU ETS allowances fell due to the marginal cost for gas being below that of coal.
- However, toward the end of the week both allowance prices rose, finding support from the nearing EU/US tariff agreement. This has since been agreed at 15%, which we would expect could drive prices up in the week ahead
- As the 1 January 2026 deadline for the EU CBAM implementation draws closer, officials have stated the need for formal EU/UK ETS negotiations. According to EU ambassador Pedro Serrano, both sides are committed to advancing these negotiations swiftly which could provide bearish market signals over the coming months.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight