Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Almost all tracked power and gas contracts registered bearish movements last week. Day-ahead gas fell 6.4% to 96.33p/th, due to warmer weather conditions easing gas heating demand, although stronger losses were limited due to maintenance at the Barrow gas facility and an outage at the Norwegian Asgard, reducing flows into GB. Day-ahead power declined 6.1% to £93.42/MWh, following its gas counterpart lower amid easing gas-for-power demand, combined with strong wind outturn and rising solar generation further relaxing system margins. Across 28 – 29 March wind represented ~46% of the generation mix for those respective days, weighing bearishly on short-term prices as reliance on expensive fuelled generation decreased. April 25 gas was down 4.9% at 98.20p/th, and May 25 gas decreased 4.5% to 97.90p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 2.2% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas dropped 4.6% and 3.7% respectively, subsiding to 98.55p/th and 102.75p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered losses last week, down on average by 2.0%, as summer 25 power decreased 3.2% to £82.25/MWh, while winter 25 fell 2.7% to £88.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 6.1% to £93.42/MWh, following easing temperatures, lower day-ahead gas prices and strong wind outturn.
- April 25 power slipped 3.6% at £86.00/MWh and May 25 power decreased 3.4% to £79.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 3.4% lower to £81.50/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract lost 3.0% to £85.38/MWh, 16.8% higher than the same time last year (£73.13/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 2.9% to £114.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- April 25 peak power declined 5.6% at £89.00/MWh, and May 25 peak power decreased 3.8% to £83.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 2.2% to £87.83/MWh
- This is 21.3% higher than the same time last year (72.40/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 2.0%.
- Summer 25 power decreased 3.2% to £82.25/MWh, while winter 25 fell 2.7% to £88.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 2.2% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power dropped 3.5% and 2.3% respectively, falling to £85.25/MWh and £104.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Experiencing its fourth week of price increases, Brent crude rose 3.1% across the reporting period to average $73.48/bl, reaching a monthly high of $73.99/bl on 26 March.
- Prices found bullish support from reports of a larger-than-expected drop in US oil inventories, down 4.6mnbarrels in the week ending March 21. Expectations were set at approximately 2.5 million barrels, highlighting a larger draw.
- Moreover, global supply remains constricted amid President Trump’s threat of tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan crude slowed loadings at Venezuelan ports.
- Oil prices will continue to be volatile into the future due to ongoing geopolitical issues. Oil supply shortages following tariff threats from the US, increased Chinese demand, and volatility in the Middle East and Ukraine are all situations that impact the price of the substance, supporting the volatility seen.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Looking at prices seen across the UK and EU ETS schemes, a divergence was recorded, with UK ETS prices recording its second week of gains, whereas its EU counterpart saw losses.
- UK ETS prices reached a monthly high of £47.01/t on 28 March following market volatility ahead of the March options expiry date .
- France expressed concerns over EUA demand and called for the European Union to restrict prices by fixing a “corridor” to limit volatile price movements that require the EU to step in to stabilise the price. This attributed to recent bearish sentiment seen across EUA prices.
- Losses were further supported by higher coal prices across the week, aiding in reducing coal-fired generation, a typically more carbon intensive form of power generation across Europe. Similarly, mild temperatures and strong wind generation across the continent reduced overall gas requirements, with readily available low carbon generation.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
