Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
This week presented bearish movements for wholesale gas and power contracts. Primarily, we observed losses due to periods of strong wind generation reducing the requirement for more expensive gas-fired assets to meet domestic demand requirements, alongside above-average temperatures reducing heating demand. Likewise, on 1 April, GB set a new maximum solar generation record of 12.2GW between 12:30 and 13:00. As a result, day-ahead gas fell 7.4% to 89.23p/th. Likewise, day-ahead power fell 1.5% to £92.00/MWh, weighed on by losses across its gas counterpart. Across the front-month contracts, May 25 gas was down 9.6% at 88.55p/th, and June 25 gas decreased 8.9% to 90.58p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 3.0% on average, with winter 25 and summer 26 gas dropping 6.1% and 3.2% respectively, subsiding to 96.53p/th and 79.58p/th. Likewise, all seasonal power contracts fell across the reporting period, down on average by 3.4%, as winter 25 power decreased 5.4% to £83.75/MWh, and summer 26 fell 3.2% to £67.75/MWh. Prices across the commodity market were dominated by the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump. While imports of oil, natural gas, and refined goods were exempt from these tariffs, it increased wider fears surrounding a global recession and escalate trade disputes. Slower economic growth poses a risk to global industrial production and demand, keeping prices for commodities subdued.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 1.5% to £92.00/MWh, following periods of stronger wind generation on the system, with wind generation accounting for between 40-46% of the generation mix in GB across the 2-5 April. On 1 April, GB set a new maximum solar generation record of 12.2GW between 12:30 and 13:00
- May 25 power slipped 7.6% to £73.00/MWh and June 25 power decreased 7.4% to £73.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q325 power moved 6.7% lower to £76.50/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract lost 4.4% to £75.75/MWh, 8.6% higher than the same time last year (£69.75/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 6.4% to £106.75/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower
- May 25 peak power declined 8.7% at £75.75/MWh, and June 25 peak power decreased 4.3% to £78.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power fell 2.7% to £86.75/MWh.
- This is 1.3% lower than the same time last year (87.90/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts decreased across the week, down on average by 3.4%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 fell 5.4% and 3.2% respectively, dropping to £83.75/MWh and £67.75/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts fell last week, down 5.4% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power dropped 5.8% and 5.1% respectively, falling to £98.00/MWh and £70.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Last week presented itself to be a bearish week for Brent Crude, falling 0.9% to average $72.81/bl, dropping to the lowest price seen since April 2021 at $64.60/bl on 4 April dropping almost $10.00/bl from the day previous.
- Brent crude remained within the $74.00-$75.00/bl range from 31 March to 3 April, before experiencing a sharp drop off on 4 April. This is the result of tariff announcements by US President Donald Trump.
- While imports of oil, natural gas, and refined good were exempt from these tariffs, it increased wider fears surrounding a global recession and escalate trade disputes.
- Moreover, OPEC members announced that they would speed up production hikes and gradually reduce output cuts, approving a 411,000 barrel per day increase in May as part of a plan to reduce the 2.2 million barrel per day output cut.
- However, it was outlined that these production increases could be paused or reversed based on evolving market conditions.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both the UK and EU ETS saw price decreases across the last week, with EU ETS carbon falling 2.7% to average €68.03/t and UK ETS carbon dropping 2.0% to £45.39/t, as wider concerns surrounding a global recession impacting the price of carbon.
- For the EU ETS in particular, price losses were further influenced by higher coal prices, reducing the overall demand for coal-fired generation, a much more carbon intensive form of power production.
- Likewise, temperatures across Europe remained above-average, reducing overall power demand, and limiting EUA demand.
- Across its UK counterpart, decreased prices were driven by periods of strong wind generation on the system, with wind accounting for 40-46% of the generation mix across 2-5 April. This reduced overall demand for gas-fired generation, a more carbon intensive form of generation.
- UK ETS prices will find support from notably reduced wind generation levels in the week ahead, and below-average temperatures at the beginning of the week.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
