Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Overall, markets experienced another volatile week. Geopolitical developments remained the key driver for gas contracts, with prices declining amid signs of easing tensions. In contrast, power prices moved higher over the period, driven by reduced wind generation. This comes following a week which had record breaking wind generation across GB limiting requirements for gas-fired generation. Day‑ahead gas fell 4.6% to 129.00p/th after President Donald reiterated U.S. plans to scale back its military presence in the region, suggesting a potential withdrawal timeframe of “maybe two weeks, maybe three,” while also stating that “Iran does not have to make a deal with me.” This suggestion that the conflict may be nearing an end reduced near‑term geopolitical risk premiums, driving a short‑term bearish reaction in gas prices. Conversely, day-ahead power rose 11.5% to £75.41/MWh, due to a drop in wind generation week on week. May 26 gas was down 7.4% at 126.25p/th, and June 26 gas decreased 8.0% at 124.50p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 6.5% on average Both winter 26 and summer 27 gas dropped 8.9% and 7.9% respectively, subsiding to 127.50p/th and 93.75p/th. Likewise, all seasonal power contracts fell last week, down on average by 1.1%, as winter 26 power decreased 4.5% to £101.50/MWh, while summer 27 fell 1.2% to £78.63/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 11.5% to £75.41/MWh, following a reduction in wind generation output and a week which saw day-ahead power prices falling to the lowest level seen since September 2025 due to increased wind output.
- May 26 power slipped 3.2% at £97.00/MWh, and June 26 power decreased 2.3% to £100.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power was £198.48/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract lost 3.1% to £90.07/MWh, which was 7.3% higher than the same time last month (£83.95/MWh), and 31.2% higher than the same time last year (£68.63/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 7.5% to £90.45/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
- May 26 peak power declined 1.0% at £99.25/MWh, and June 26 peak power increased 0.4% to £102.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power rose 0.1% to £99.71/MWh, 10.1% lower than the same time last month (90.53/MWh), and 8.7% higher than the same time last year (£91.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.1%. Winter 26 power decreased 4.5% to £101.50/MWh, while summer 27 fell 1.2% to £78.63/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 0.1% on average.
- Winter 26 gas dropped 2.5% to £119.63/MWh, while summer 27 peak power increased 0.3% to £80.38/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw another volatile week, rising 4.8% to $109.77/bl, reaching a peak of $119.00/bl on 31 March, the highest level seen since June 2022, before falling to $101.79/bl the day after.
- The trigger was a post on Truth Social from Donald Trump urging countries struggling to secure jet fuel from the US or go to the Strait and “take it” themselves.
- However, stronger gains were limited as US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.2% in the week ending March 27, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
- Inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels to around 461.6 million barrels, with market expectations sitting at an increase of 1.8 million barrels.
- The European Commission called on Member States to prepare to secure the supply of oil in the EU, while also urging member states to avoid measures that could drive up fuel consumption, restrict the free flow of petroleum products, or undermine refinery output.
- Additionally, Iran has stated it is permitting ships “not related” to the US or Israel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- In line with the trend observed over the previous week, both EU and UK ETS carbon prices rose over the reporting period, gaining 2.0% and 8.6% respectively, with prices peaking mid‑week following proposed changes from the European Commission.
- On 2 April, the European Commission published a proposal to amend the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), removing the 400 Mt invalidation threshold. Under the current framework, all allowances held in the reserve above 400 million are permanently invalidated.
- The proposed amendment will stop the invalidation mechanism, allowing these allowances to be kept as a buffer that can support market stability – since this was larger than expected, it provided a bullish impact to the market.
- Similar to last week, gas-to-coal switching across Europe in order to limit exposure to volatile gas price movements supported higher prices across the reporting period.
- However, stronger gains were limited by above-average temperatures across GB and Europe, alongside strong solar generation, with current solar production estimated to be 38% above the seasonal normal in Germany and 41% above the seasonal normal in France, according current market forecasts.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight