Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
All power and gas contracts rose last week, finding influence from recent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, continued maintenance across the Norwegian Continental Shelf and lower levels of wind generation towards the end of the week acting to increase gas-fired generation demand. As a result, day-ahead gas rose 8.6% to 86.20p/th. Day-ahead power rose 6.0% to £73.75/MWh, following an unplanned outage at the 595MW Hartlepool 2 reactor, alongside continued maintenance across the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Moreover, July 25 gas was up 8.0% at 85.00p/th, and August 25 gas increased 6.6% to 86.40p/th. Likewise, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 4.5% on average, with both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increasing 6.0% and 5.5% respectively, lifting to 96.03p/th and 83.63p/th. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts saw gains last week, up on average by 2.1%, as winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 3.5% and 2.3% respectively, rising to £86.25/MWh and £72.70/MWh. Longer-dated contracts found support from drought concerns across GB after the country saw a record-breaking level of sunshine across the first five months of 2025.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 6.0% to £73.75/MWh, following an unplanned outage at the 595MW Hartlepool 2 reactor, alongside continued maintenance across the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
- July 25 power climbed 2.9% at £76.20/MWh and August 25 power increased 4.4% to £76.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q325 power moved 2.5% higher to £78.25/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract rose 2.9% to £79.48/MWh, 4.2% higher than the same time last year (£76.25/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 38.1% to £83.30/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
- July 25 peak power gained 3.3% at £79.30/MWh, and August 25 peak power increased 7.1% to £79.30/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 2.0% to £90.75/MWh
- This is 7.9% lower than the same time last year (98.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.1%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 3.5% and 2.3% respectively, rising to £86.25/MWh and £72.70/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 2.0% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power increased 2.6% and 2.0% respectively, rising to £101.25/MWh and £75.25/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Across the reporting period, Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to $65.53/bl, finding support from escalating geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine, alongside a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, and increased optimism over global trade talks.
- In addition, speculation over possible new US sanctions on Russia fueled concerns about supply disruptions, further supporting the upward price trend.
- According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels across the week, signaling higher demand.
- Furthermore, oil market analysts forecasted a drop of 2.9 million-barrels, reinforcing expectations of stronger demand.
- During the week, we also saw the announcement of Turkey and Azerbaijan signing a new deal to boost oil and gas production, with Ankara and Baku signing a major agreement to boost the production of oil and gas in Azerbaijan.
- On 6 July, OPEC+ is scheduled to hold another meeting to decide on production levels for August, which will impact the market if production cuts continue.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS carbon prices continue to find influence from movements seen across Dutch TTF (the benchmark gas price for Europe), and as such recorded gains due to decreased wind generation acting to increase demand for more expensive forms of power generation.
- As such, EU ETS carbon prices reached €73.92/t on 6 June, the highest level seen since March 2025.
- Due to the fact that geopolitical tensions still largely impact the market, traders are particularly sensitive to any shifts in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as these could have significant implications for energy supply and pricing across Europe over the coming months.UK ETS carbon prices recorded losses on the previous week, reporting £51.30/t on 30 May and £50.88/t on 6 June. This was a result of market participants continuing to react to a lack of clarity on the timeline for the linkage of the UK ETS with the EU ETS.
- Likewise, strong levels of wind generation across the week led to lower reliance on gas-fired generation, with wind generation making up approximately 62.0% of the generation mix across GB on 3 June.
- Carbon prices continue to find influence from their respective gas counterparts, and as such are expected to record decreases across the summer months.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
