Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most tracked gas and power contracts registered a bullish trend, with the strong exception of day-ahead power, experiencing strong wind related losses last week. Day-ahead gas rose 7.2% to 118.15p/th, following rising LDZ demand as temperatures dropped significantly on the week previous, with gas-for-power demand starting the week at a three-week high. Day-ahead power fell 12.3% to £100.59/MWh, dropping to a 5-week low of £70.00/MWh on 3 June amid strong wind generation outturn. However, losses were limited as forecasts of easing wind outturn in the latter half of the week increased exposure to gas market volatility, resulting in prices rising above £100.00/MWh sharply for 4-5 June. July 26 gas was up 4.6% at 117.20p/th, and August 26 gas increased 5.8% at 117.48p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 1.8% on average, while both winter 26 and summer 27 gas increased 4.2% and 1.4% respectively, lifting to 119.83p/th and 85.55p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered gains last week, up on average by 1.1%, as winter 26 and summer 27 expanded 2.3% and 1.5% respectively, rising to £103.05/MWh and £77.88/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 12.3% to £100.59/MWh, following strong wind generation levels over the week.
- July 26 power climbed 3.1% to £103.10/MWh and August 26 power increased 4.3% to £100.90/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q326 power moved 2.9% higher to £101.88/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract rose 1.9% to £90.47/MWh, 24.5% higher than the same time last year (£72.65/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 4.0% to £105.00/MWh, opposing its baseload counterpart.
- July 26 peak power gained 4.1% at £101.95/MWh, and August 26 peak power increased 4.9% to £100.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power rose 1.0% to £98.27/MWh
- This is 18.1% higher than the same time last year (£83.18/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 1.1%.
- Winter 26 and summer 27 expanded 2.3% and 1.5% respectively, rising to £103.05/MWh and £77.88/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw gains last week, up 1.0% on average.
- Winter 26 and summer 27 peak power increased 1.7% and 1.0% respectively, falling to £120.50/MWh and £79.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Last week registered losses for Brent crude oil, dropping 1.2% to $95.56/bl. Prices peaked at $97.59/bl on Wednesday, before falling away towards the end of the week, ending at $93.74/bl.
- Brent crude oil experienced relatively volatile movements throughout the week, amid uncertainty surrounding any potential ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel.
- Rising tensions and the escalation of fighting in the Midde East provided bullish support to prices during the week, as Hezbollah rejected a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
- Naturally, Brent crude oil prices will react to geopolitical developments with recent threats from Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz likely to provide a level of support to prices.
- OPEC still expects global oil demand to rise by 1.2mn bl/d over 2026, although demand from China – the largest oil-buying nation – has slowed recently.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Across the week, both EU and UK ETS carbon prices saw losses. UK ETS prices decreased by 2.9% to average £55.99/t and EU ETS dropped 1.1% lower to €78.21/t.
- UK prices reached a two-week low of £55.25/t on Thursday.
- Almost 4.2mn extra EU carbon allowances were auctioned last week, with this additional supply pushing prices lower.
- Alongside the additional supply, the final two auctions of the week saw the bid-cover ratio drop to a three-week low.
- Similarly, the latest UK auction saw low demand for allowances, with the number of allowances bid for dropping for the third consecutive auction.
- The spread between the two schemes tightened marginally last week, with the price difference between the two schemes falling to a four-month low.
- According to reports, the European Commission could agree a proposed revision to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in September.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight