Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week, short-term gains were supported by lower wind outturn, while long-term contracts saw bullish support due to geopolitical uncertainty with the escalation of tensions and conflict between US and Iran. Day-ahead gas rose 69.5% to 132.98p/th, predominantly driven by geopolitics, rather than by underlying fundamentals, inline with the news of QatarEnergy halting its LNG production due to Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities. Additionally, President Trump stated that the initial plan was for the operation against Iran to continue for 4-5 more weeks. As wind output fell, day-ahead power rose 59.2% to £117.17/MWh, driven by increased reliance on CCGT units and more expensive fuel‑based generation, alongside the geopolitical uncertainty. Wind generation peaked at a low 29.4% of the generation mix on 5 March, then dropped below seasonal levels into the weekend. April 26 gas was up 72.3% at 134.75p/th, and May 26 gas increased 69.0% to 131.78p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 38.9% on average, and both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 63.2% and 47.0% respectively, lifting to 124.70p/th and 118.33p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 21.5%, as both summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 37.6% and 27.3% respectively, rising to £97.00/MWh and £96.40/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 59.2% to £117.17/MWh, following drop in wind generation and geopolitical uncertainty
- April 26 power climbed 41.6% to £102.00/MWh, and May 26 power increased 41.4% to £99.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 40.2% higher to £99.10/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 32.2% to £96.70/MWh, which was 27.8% higher than the same time last month (£75.68/MWh), and 35.9% higher than the same time last year (£71.13/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 21.2% to £103.00/MWh, following drops in market fundamentals and rise in geopolitical uncertainty
- April 26 peak power gained 41.5% to £101.65/MWh, and May 26 peak power increased 40.4% to £99.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power contract rose 26.4% to £94.17/MWh, 22.4% lower than the same time last month (£76.93/MWh), and 29.7% higher than the same time last year (£72.63/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 21.5%.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 37.6% and 27.3% respectively, rising to £97.00/MWh and £96.40/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 26.1% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power increased 37.0% and 25.1% respectively, climbing to £97.75/MWh and £111.75/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw significant gains as the week progressed, starting at $78.54/bl, which was already the highest level since January 2025, before rising to $90.88/bl by 6 March, the highest level since October 2023
- Bahrain’s state-owned energy company Bapco said it declared force majeure, after its operations were disrupted by war in the Middle East and a recent attack on its refinery
- On 9 March, oil prices passed $100.00/bl for the first time since 2022, prompting the G7 nations to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the economic impact of the US-Israel war with Iran, including the rising price of oil
- However, stronger gains were limited as the US issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. It was noted that the waiver was intentionally short-term and limited to transactions involving shipments already stranded at sea, meaning it would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, while maintaining global supply
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU and UK ETS carbon continued their bearish trends with EU ETS carbon decreasing 0.7% to €70.99/t and UK ETS carbon falling 6.0% to £43.14/t
- Currently, the conflict in the Middle East is having opposing impacts on the carbon markets in the UK and Europe, with potential demand destruction and trade disruption acting to suppress demand, and prices by extension, while higher gas prices across Europe are incentivising higher levels of coal generation acting to increase carbon prices
- Across UK ETS carbon, prices fell to £39.99/t on 6 March, the lowest level seen since March 2025 as warmer weather limited total heating demand on the system
- Sentiment regarding prices in the carbon market continue to differ to those seen in the gas market as the European Commission opened a formal investigation into Italy’s domestic anti-ETS call, further adding to current political uncertainty regarding the scheme
- This uncertainty acted to drive down prices, with EU ETS carbon remaining within the range of €70.00-$73.00/t
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight