Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week saw predominantly bullish movements across whole power and gas contracts, primarily due to lower week-on-week wind generation increasing the requirement for more expensive gas-fired assets to meet demand, with colder temperatures also leading to increased gas-for-heating demand. These bullish influences were compounded further by maintenance and outages across the Norwegian Continental Shelf, acting to tighten system margins. As a result, day-ahead gas prices rose 10.5% to 105.50p/th, peaking for the week at 107.63p/th on 11 March. Likewise, day-ahead power rose 14.0% to £98.50/MWh, with prices climbing above £100.00/MWh on both 12 and 13 March, following lower wind outturn and easing temperatures. Across the front month contracts, April 25 gas was up 8.6% at 103.68p/th, and May 25 gas increased 8.8% to 102.50p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 3.6% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas increasing by 8.3% and 5.3% respectively, lifting to 102.68p/th and 102.58p/th. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts recorded gains last week, up on average by 4.0%, as summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 5.0% and 4.1% respectively, rising to £83.25/MWh and £88.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 9.0% to £86.37/MWh, due to recent mild weather helping to lower demand across GB, alongside higher wind generation on the system throughout the week allowing prices to soften.
- April 25 power slipped 6.1% to £81.00/MWh and May 25 power decreased 7.6% to £75.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 7.3% lower to £77.85/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract lost 7.6% to £81.88/MWh, 16.3% higher than the same time last year (£70.38/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 0.1% to £117.50/MWh, opposing the movement seen across its baseload counterpart.
- However, April 25 peak power fell 8.8% to £86.00/MWh, and May 25 peak power decreased 8.5% to £79.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power contract fell 6.9% to £85.88/MWh.
- This is 19.3% higher than the same time last year (£72.00/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 5.8%.
- Summer 25 power decreased 6.7% to £79.25/MWh, while winter 25 fell 8.4% to £84.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 6.9% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power both dropped 7.0%, falling to £84.25/MWh and £100.75/MWh, respectively.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Strong downward price movements were driven by data outlining a notable increase in US crude oil stockpiles, resulting in an average decrease of 4.3% to $70.43/bl. For the week ending 28 February, US oil reserves increased by 3.6 million barrels, much larger than market expectations.
- Brent crude fell to $68.99/bl on 6 March, the lowest level seen since August 2021 amid reduced market demand and much stronger production from the US since the start of 2025.
- Moreover, further losses were impacted by concerns surrounding the impact of US tariffs on the market, alongside rising output from OPEC+ producers, who said they intend to proceed with the planned increase to output in April, adding 138,000 barrels per day to the market.
- However, stronger losses were limited as the US outlined it would increase sanctions on Russian industry if a ceasefire with Ukraine is not reached.
- Due to the sensitive nature of oil prices, the price is expected to remain volatile into the future.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Continuing the recent movements observed, the UK and EU carbon markets both recorded losses. UK ETS carbon fell 5.6% to average £39.78/t, and EU ETS carbon fell 4.8% to average €68.70/t.
- Across the UK ETS, prices losses were driven by heightened wind generation on the system decreasing reliance on more expensive forms of power generation, typically gas-fired, to meet demand levels – as a result UK ETS carbon prices rose fell to a two-month low of £39.00/t on 6 March.
- Looking at the EU ETS, a bearish fundamental came from losses seen across European natural gas prices following above-average temperatures acting to reduce gas-for-heating demand, resulting in prices falling to the lowest level seen since December 2024 at €67.16/t on 6 March.
- ETS prices are expected to remain somewhat level in the short-term, finding bullish support from forecasts of reduced wind generation in the week ahead, moreover below-average temperatures are set to bolster thermal generation and EUA demand by extension.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
