Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week saw predominantly bullish movements across whole power and gas contracts, primarily due to lower week-on-week wind generation increasing the requirement for more expensive gas-fired assets to meet demand, with colder temperatures also leading to increased gas-for-heating demand. These bullish influences were compounded further by maintenance and outages across the Norwegian Continental Shelf, acting to tighten system margins. As a result, day-ahead gas prices rose 10.5% to 105.50p/th, peaking for the week at 107.63p/th on 11 March. Likewise, day-ahead power rose 14.0% to £98.50/MWh, with prices climbing above £100.00/MWh on both 12 and 13 March, following lower wind outturn and easing temperatures. Across the front month contracts, April 25 gas was up 8.6% at 103.68p/th, and May 25 gas increased 8.8% to 102.50p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 3.6% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas increasing by 8.3% and 5.3% respectively, lifting to 102.68p/th and 102.58p/th. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts recorded gains last week, up on average by 4.0%, as summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 5.0% and 4.1% respectively, rising to £83.25/MWh and £88.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 14.0% to £98.50/MWh, following colder weather increasing gas-for-power demand throughout the week and periods of low wind generation leading to tighter system margins
- April 25 power climbed 7.4% at £87.00/MWh, and May 25 power increased 10.7% to £83.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 5.9% higher to £82.45/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract rose 4.6% to £85.63/MWh, which was 13.3% lower than the same time last month (£98.75/MWh), and 21.5% higher than the same time last year (£70.50/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 0.4% to £118.00/MWh, following the movement of its baseload counterpart.
- April 25 peak power gained 7.0% at £92.00/MWh, and May 25 peak power increased 10.0% to £87.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 11.4% to £95.63/MWh
- This is 39.1% higher than the same time last year (68.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 4.0%.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 5.0% and 4.1% respectively, rising to £83.25/MWh and £88.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 3.2% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power increased 4.2% and 2.7% respectively, falling to £87.75/MWh and £103.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil remained relatively level week-on-week, rising 0.03% to $70.45/bl, finding influence from current market conditions with regards to economic growth and global demand expectations into 2025.
- Brent crude fell prices stayed within the $70-71/bl range throughout the week, highlighting a potential decrease in market volatility across the reporting period.
- We saw concerns surrounding economic conditions following tariffs set in place by Donald Trump, with the current market conditions expected to negatively impact and delay investment decisions, impacting economic growth, and oil demand by extension.
- However, stability came from improving outlooks towards the war in Ukraine, with a potential Russia/Ukraine peace deal reducing the geopolitical risk associated with oil exports from Russia.
- Additionally, the International Energy Agency outlined that global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 600,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Opposing the recent movements observed, the UK and EU carbon markets both recorded gains. UK ETS carbon rose 3.9% to average £41.32/t, and EU ETS carbon climbed 1.1% to average €69.48/t.
- Across the UK ETS, prices gains were driven by lower wind generation on the system increasing reliance on more expensive forms of power generation, typically gas-fired, to meet demand levels, with UK ETS carbon prices peaking for the week on March 14 at £44.37/t.
- Gains across EU ETS carbon were supported by higher Dutch TTF prices, to which it remains strongly linked, with prices climbing throughout the week.
- Prices in the future could fall as European LNG regasification capacity improvements occur. Likewise, as temperatures rise into the summer months, further decreases in demand will likely be seen, lowering carbon prices by extension.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
