Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Bearish movements were seen across both gas and power markets last week, due to strong wind forecasts and rising temperatures. Day-ahead gas fell 12.5% to 110.25p/th, following a marked rise in temperature across GB in the latter half of the week, leading to strong bearish losses as domestic heating demand dropped, with day ahead prices reaching their lowest point since December 2024 on 21 February at 110.25p/th. Day-ahead power fell 37.8% to £71.00/MWh, as wind generation projections for 24 February were forecasting a peak of 15.7GW in the week ahead, placing strong bearish pressure on prices at weeks end. As a result of the high wind outturn, day ahead prices also reached their lowest point since December 2024 at £70.41/MWh. March 25 gas was down 10.0% at 110.15p/th, and April 25 gas decreased 10.2% to 110.00p/th. Similarly, all seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 5.3% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas dropped 9.2% and 7.7% respectively, subsiding to 110.45p/th and 112.35p/th. All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 6.9%, as summer 25 power decreased 9.9% to £86.00/MWh, while winter 25 fell 7.8% to £94.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 37.8% to £71.00/MWh, following record high wind forecasts, weighing bearishly on prices.
- March 25 power slipped 9.4% at £91.50/MWh and April 25 power decreased 11.0% to £88.60/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 9.6% lower to £85.85/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract lost 8.9% to £90.0/MWh, 39.3% higher than the same time last year (£64.63/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 6.2% to £117.15/MWh, opposing its baseload counterpart.
- March 25 peak power declined 9.2% at £101.25/MWh, and April 25 peak power decreased 3.0% to £96.60/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 10.0% to £92.67/MWh
- This is 41.9% higher than the same time last year (65.3/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 6.9%.
- Summer 25 power decreased 9.9% to £86.00/MWh, while winter 25 fell 7.8% to £94.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 10.1% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power dropped 12.1% and 7.8% respectively, falling to £92.00/MWh and £110.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Average Brent crude oil prices saw losses last week, falling 0.3% to average $75.83/bl, with mixed fundamentals impacting the price of the commodity, leading to the 0.3% loss seen
- Gains were supported amid a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station, disrupting oil flows via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). This pipeline is a key route for Kazakhstan’s crude exports, with the attack potentially reducing oil flows from the region by ~35%. Likewise, extreme weather conditions in the US reduced oil production, with oil output from North Dakota dropping 150,000 barrels per day due to significantly cold weather
- However, price losses were supported by a reduced geopolitical premium surrounding the Middle East as the Gaza ceasefire continues to reduce risk in the market.
- With a potential end to the conflict in the Middle East, decreased OPEC+ supply, higher projected Chinese demand and lower US crude oil production levels, crude oil is undergoing a period of volatility
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both the UK and EU carbon markets recorded bearish pricing fundamentals, as EU ETS prices fell by 7.7% to average €74.58/t, UK ETS carbon eased 8.6% to £42.96/t.
- As wind generation levels rose across the reporting period, gas generation demands were limited as grid demand remained reduced during periods of above-average temperatures
- For the EU scheme, prices were driven down by subsequent losses across European benchmark gas prices (Dutch TTF), as gas-fired generation becomes more economical when compared to coal, reducing coal-fired generation and lowering demand for EUAs across Europe. This resulted in a monthly low of €72.61/t seen on 20 February
- The UK government published an updated list of free carbon permit handouts by installation covered by the country’s ETS for the period 2021-25, with allocations for the current year now 14% lower than the 2024 total. This will act to tighten the market moving forward, leading to overall price increases
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
