Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Across the week ending 21 March, tracked gas and power contracts predominantly registered gains, however some of those closer on the forward curve saw losses. Day-ahead gas fell 2.5% to 102.88p/th, due to warmer weather conditions observed, acting to decrease gas-for-heating requirements, coupled with greater solar generation on the system. However, stronger losses were limited by weak wind generation forecasts for 24 March, and reports of a Russian strike on the Sudzha gas pumping and metering station on the morning of Friday 21 March, impeding gas supply into Europe. Opposing this, day-ahead power rose 1.0% to £99.53/MWh, finding support from lower wind generation across the reporting period. However, additional gains were limited by losses across its gas counterpart, alongside above-average temperatures. As a result, day-ahead prices fell to the lowest level seen in 2025 so far on 20 March at £61.49/MWh, further aided by stronger wind generation. Moreover, May 24 gas was up 2.7% at 76.95p/th, and June 24 gas increased 2.1% to 75.85p/th. April 25 power increased 2.6% to 89.25p/th, while May 25 power decreased 1.4% to 81.80p/th. All seasonal power contracts rose last week, up by 2.2% on average, with both summer 25 and winter 25 power increasing 2.1% and 3.4% respectively, lifting to 85.00p/th and 90.95p/th.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 1.0% week-on-week to £99.53/MWh, with higher prices on 21 March supported by expectations of lower wind generation at the beginning of the week commencing 24 March, with an estimated 5.5GW of wind generation set to occur on 24 March.
- Similarly, April 25 power climbed 2.6% at £89.25/MWh while May 25 power decreased 1.4% to £81.80/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 2.4% higher to £84.40/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract increased 2.7% to £87.98/MWh, 22.2% higher than the same time last year (£72.00/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 0.5% to £117.40/MWh, opposing the movement seen across its baseload counterpart.
- April 25 peak power rose 2.5% to £94.30/MWh, whereas May 25 peak power decreased 1.7% to £86.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 1.4% to £89.85/MWh.
- This is 27.9% higher than the same time last year (70.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts increased last week, up on average by 2.2%.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 2.1% and 3.4% respectively, rising to £85.00/MWh and £90.95/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts rose last week, up 1.3% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power increased 0.6% and 2.9% respectively, rising to £88.30/MWh and £106.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent Crude saw upwards movements at the beginning of the week, driven by heightened concerns of trade disruptions in the Red Sea after further attacks in the region were carried out – leading to a 1.2% increase, with prices averaging $71.26/bl.
- Further afield, the Chinese government introduced a new stimulus package with the intent of boosting domestic demand to rebalance its economy.
- As a result, oil prices rose due to boosted optimism over the country’s demand for the commodity.
- However, on 19 March, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates at their current rate, but also revised its growth forecast down, providing some bearish sentiment to the crude market.
- Recent plans from the US to increase its oil production in new areas, will likely providing future downside, particularly if growth targets remain low.
- Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East, will likely be the main driver of oil prices over the coming weeks, as continued developments run the risk of disrupting global trade in the shorter-term.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Last week saw periods of particularly low wind in GB, with some settlement periods reaching lows of sub-1GW wind generation. As a result, UK ETS carbon prices rose 10.3% to average £45.58/t, and EU ETS carbon rose 2.8% to average €71.40/t.
- Ultimately though, GB was much more reliant on gas-fired units than the week prior, which provided some upwards pressure to UK ETS prices last week, leading to a monthly high of £46.42/t seen on 19 March.
- As we head into the summer months, electricity demand is expected to fall, and as such it is likely we will a slight corresponding decline in ETS prices due to less reliance on fossil fuelled generation.
- NESO’s proposal to reduce the minimum inertia requirement on the GB grid by 15% to 102GVAs will, if agreed on by Ofgem, reduce the running hours of synchronous generation to support system margin requirements, thus freeing up UKAs available to the market.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
