Headlines
All power and gas contracts reported gains this week. Day-ahead gas rose 27.8% to 88.00p/th, finding continued support from disruption to Norwegian flows as extensive maintenance continues. July 23 gas was up 31.5% at 88.00p/th, and August 23 gas increased 22.9% to 88.40p/th. Amid ongoing volatility, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 13.2% on average, while both winter 23 and summer 24 gas increased 17.6% and 17.5% respectively, lifting to 132.00p/th and 126.00p/th. Following its gas counterpart, day-ahead power rose 18.1% to sthis week, up on average by 11.7%, as winter 23 and summer 24 expanded 14.2% and 16.3% respectively, rising to £136.50/MWh and £116.00/MWh. Brent crude registered a 3.1% drop week-on-week to average $74.12/bl. This came following an unexpected rise in U.S. crude oil inventories. The UK ETS grew 7.8% to average £56.45/t and the EU ETS registered its highest value in two months of €94.15/t on 15 June.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 18.1% to £98.00/MWh, following its gas counterpart higher and supported by increased demand in periods of the week.
- July 23 power climbed 21.7% at £99.50/MWh and August 23 power increased 21.6% to £99.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q323 power moved 18.0% higher to £100.00/MWh.
- The annual October 23 contract rose 15.2% to £126.25/MWh, but was 27.9% lower than the same time last year (£175.00/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 38.3% to £111.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher
- July 23 peak power gained 38.7% at £118.00/MWh, and August 23 peak power increased 30.4% to £111.00/MWh.
Annual April contract
- The annual October 23 peak power rose 18.5% to £153.5/MWh
- However, this is 41.3% lower than the same time last year (£261.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 11.7%.
- Winter 23 and summer 24 expanded 14.2% and 16.3% respectively, rising to £136.50/MWh and £116.00/MWh.
Seasonal baseload power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 18.8% on average.
- Winter 23 and summer 24 peak power increased 16.9% and 20.7% respectively, rising to £176.00/MWh and £131.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Contrary to the trend experienced across the previous reporting period, Brent crude registered a 3.1% drop week-on-week to average $74.12/bl.
- This came following an unexpected build in U.S. crude oil inventories, and Federal Reserve predictions of more interest rate hikes this year
- This bearish sentiment was limited by increased optimism surrounding Chinese demand, however, which acts to boost prices.
- Following the release of the June edition of the IEA’s Oil Market Report, it is expected that world oil demand will grow by 2.4mb/d in 2023, as Chinese demand continues to rise
- This is in tandem with reduced OPEC+ supply levels, acting to further tighten the global market
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- The UK ETS grew 7.8% to average £56.45/t and the EU ETS registered its highest value in two months of €94.15/t on 15 June
- Both ETS schemes continue their recent week-on-week gains following losses to wind generation levels – tightening system margins and boosting demand for more expensive forms of power generation
- This was compounded by above-average temperatures acting to bolster demand for cooling appliances, and as a result energy consumption rose
- Following the Carbon Market Survey 2023, respondents anticipated that average EUA prices would exceed €100/t within the next 2-3 years
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
